Baseball is once again in its loud and obnoxious contract negotiation phase, complete with plaintive cries that if the players didn’t get so much money the owners wouldn’t have to charge so much for tickets. It’s not a particularly convincing argument.
Implicitly it’s using the perfectly competitive market story from Econ 101. That story runs as follows: Consider the bicycle industry, which uses steel as one of the inputs to produce bicycles. Suppose for now that the industry is selling 1000 bicycles a week at $100 per bicycle. Some of the bicycle purchasers would be willing to pay $200 for the bicycle, others wouldn’t even pay $101. Moreover, it costs the manufacturers $100 to manufacture each bicycle (factoring in a certain return on capital investment). We know that it costs $100 because if it cost them only $90, some other manufacturer would recognize a great profit opportunity and get into the market with a $95 bicycle. Eventually bicycle prices would drop to $90. And, of course, if it actually cost $110 per bicycle, the bicycle manufacturers would go broke, and there would be no bicycles manufactured all.
So, what happens when a steel tariff raises the price of making bicycles to $110? The manufacturers will no longer be willing to sell bicycles at $100. They will be willing to sell at $110, though. The folks who wouldn’t spend even $101 for a bicycle, well, won’t buy bicycles. So, fewer bicycles are made, at a higher price per bicycle.
This story comes close enough to reality to explain the most important aspects of most of the economy. As a country we would be in much better shape were we governed by people who knew only this story, rather than the people we have now who may or may not know this story, but “know” a lot of other things, too.
But it is not the only story. Not even the only Econ 101 story. Consider the market for bridges.
Suppose that a bridge costs a certain amount to build in the first place, and a certain amount to maintain (bridge painters and other maintenance people), but that the maintenance is not related to the extent of the use of the bridge. The maintenance activities are exclusively devoted to protecting the bridge against the ravages of the weather.
Further, suppose that it would be close to impossible to build a competing bridge, because there is only one feasible route across the river, and this bridge is serving it.
The owner of the bridge, like the bicycle manufacturer, wants to maximize profits. What does he do? In this case, he charges a toll that maximizes revenue. He still faces the same situation as the bicycle manufacturers: some people will be willing to pay almost anything (say, $500,000) to use his bridge, and other people will pay hardly anything at all. He doesn’t want to charge $0, because he will get no revenue. He doesn’t want to charge $1,000,000, because he will also get no revenue (because he will have no paying customers). Somewhere between $0 and $1,000,000 there is a price that will maximize his toll revenue. That’s what he wants to charge.
What happens to the profit maximizing toll if the painters go on strike for more money (or if the price of paint doubles)? Nothing! In this story, the cost of maintaining the bridge has (almost) no bearing on the profit maximizing toll that the bridge owner would want to charge. The “almost” part relates to the fact that he can eliminate the maintenance expense entirely by closing the bridge. He’d be willing to pay the painters up to the total amount he can get in tolls, but no more. (FWIW, this story is a big part, but not the only part, of the rationale for having the government provide bridges.)
To me, anyway, the facts of major league sports resemble the facts of the bridge story a lot more than they resemble the facts of the bicycle story. Thus, I doubt that player salaries really have much impact on ticket prices.
There is another twist: Bridge painters, it is assumed, can be replaced fairly easily if their demands become too onerous. Professional athletes, though, can’t be so easily replaced. So, in principle, professional athletes are a lot more likely to be able to extract all of the revenue from the owners. That’s what they’re trying to do (well, they’re trying to get as much of the revenue as they can.) Ultimately what they can get is determined by what the owners can charge for tickets. So, in this story, player salaries are determined by ticket prices, not the other way around.